Tuesday, October 30, 2012

Probability and Probability Theory

Probability is the measure of the expectation that a event will occur or a statement is true .
Probability theory is the mathematical branch to analysis the Probability with the help of some basic axioms .

The Probability (P) is defined on the measure space  ( Ω , P) as :-
 Ω :  [Sample Space] is the set of all possible outcome
 E : is a subset of  Ω   called an Event

 P :   2Ω   [0,1] s.t the following three axioms [ Kolmogorov axioms] will be held :-

1. P(E)   0
2. P(Ω) = 1
3. For a countable sequence of disjoint ( mutually exclusive ) events E1 , E2 ...
    P(E1 E2 ..) = P(E1) + P(E2) + ...

It further depicts that :-
1. P(AB) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB) and further inclusion exclusion principal .
2. P(φ)   =  0

Conditional Probability :
P(A|B) = Probability that event A occur it is known that B occur = P(AB)/P(B) [Defined as that ]

In continuous and general case Ω may be  uncountable and some of e  Ω may be with 0 probability . There we introduce a enumeration of events as instances of random variable [X ∈ ⊆ R] ( Here X = x is an event )and take  2 new term as cdf (cumulative distribution function ) F[x] =  P(X   x) and pdf (probability density function) p(x) =  dF[x]/dx .

Obviously in continuous case P[X = x] = 0 for some or all X and in discrete case P(X = x) is the probability of the event X = x.

XY [X is independent of Y] iff P(XY) = P(X)P(Y)

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